Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Alsobrooks to take on Hogan this fall, Parrott surprises to face Delaney in Maryland primary election results


Democrat David Trone's wallet is a lot lighter this morning, as Angela Alsobrooks brought an expensive end to the multimillionaire's political career by securing the Democratic nomination for the Maryland U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Ben Cardin (D). Alsobrooks, who currently serves as Prince George's County Executive, would be the first Black person to represent her state in the U.S. Senate if she wins in November. Standing between her and victory is popular former governor Larry Hogan (R), who also won his primary last night. 

While the victory of Alsobrooks followed the trends of her party in the state's recent elections, the favoring of younger and more-progressive candidates did not extend to the 6th Congressional District race, as April McClain Delaney defeated fellow Democrat Joe Vogel. The McClain Delaney-David Trone-John Delaney arc begs the question: has this seat simply become the plaything of the rich? One has to be wistful for the days of farmer Roscoe Bartlett (R), who - God bless him - is still living his best life at the age of 97 after being gerrymandered out of the seat in 2012. A congressperson who thought it was wrong for the government to spy on its own citizens - imagine that!

The surprise of the night in the 6th was the decisive victory of Neil Parrott on the Republican side of that contest. Former gubernatorial candidate Dan Cox was expected to win, or at least come close, after his high-profile endorsement by Donald Trump two years ago. Now spending most of his days in a Manhattan courtroom, and without his nemesis Hogan facing Cox this time, Trump did not weigh in on the 6th District race.

Cox has a strong and loyal following among his supporters, establishing a real movement among Christian conservatives and America First Republicans, even if downsized from 2022. While Tuesday's loss may add to doubts about his future statewide potential, it's unlikely you've heard the last of the attorney and former delegate on the political stage. Parrott will now need to maintain his momentum - and money, money and more money - to stay competitive with McClain Delaney this fall. The 6th District remains severely gerrymandered in strong favor of Democrats. A majority on the U.S. Supreme Court seem to be fine with that, as long as they don't have to undo the red state gerrymandering that has helped Republicans win more seats in Congress than they otherwise would have in recent years.

In the 8th Congressional District, Cheryl Riley defeated Michael Yadeta in a blowout victory. She will face incumbent Jamie Raskin (D) in November.

Can Alsobrooks beat Hogan? Absolutely, if all of the Democrats, independents and Republican women fired up about Roe v. Wade turn out like they did nationally in 2022 and 2023. Out-of-state groups supporting abortion rights were already engaged on her behalf in the primary, and those cash spigots will almost surely be fully-opened after Labor Day. You will hear the word "abortion" coming out of your TV speakers non-stop starting around that time, and lasting through Election Day in November. 

With Black voters holding real power in Maryland, Alsobrooks' potential history-making win is another point in her favor. And she clearly has keen political senses and organizational skills, having just run one of the biggest upset campaigns in recent Maryland history.

At the same time, Hogan has to like the result last night. Alsobrooks doesn't have the Trone fortune at her disposal, while Hogan will have a bounty of GOP dark money flowing in from out of state. Trone had much more appeal to older, moderate and independent voters than Alsobrooks will; those demographics are now in Hogan's corner again. 

Hogan enjoyed strong bipartisan support during his time as governor; Alsobrooks has not in her time as executive or state's attorney. She also doesn't have the statewide name recognition Hogan has. And because she has served in an executive role, Alsobrooks has a record with some weak spots that Hogan or his surrogates can target to a greater extent than Trone's would have provided.

Hogan was limited in what he could do while governor, as his power was greatly restricted by the Democratic legislature. But the things he did do, such as stopping tax hikes or reducing tolls, helped everyone, and voters across a diverse spectrum are likely to remember that at a time when wallets are being crushed by inflation. Barring a Roy McGrath October Surprise, Hogan is going to run a competitive race, and it will be the most-watched contest in the nation outside of Trump vs. Biden.

The most closely-watched races in Montgomery County were for the Board of Education. With the school system, student safety, and student performance continuing to trend downward, and a contentious debate over parents' ability to have their kids opt-out of some curriculum content, a number of insurgent candidates entered the contests to take on the establishment. Election results are so far showing none of the "opt-out" candidates prevailing, and two out of the three teacher's union Apple Ballot candidates are currently winning. 

Apple Ballot choice Rita Montoya is in a tight At-Large race with incumbent Lynne Harris, as ballots continue to arrive and be counted. Election results show Montoya seemed to perform best with voters who cast their ballots in person, while Harris excelled among those voting by mail. Mailed-in votes will continue to be delivered to the Board of Elections in the days ahead.

But David Trone spending $60 million of his own fortune and losing is probably the biggest headline this morning. The private jets, the Ferraris, the lavish mansions that the rest of us could have bought if we had that money... Or the sick who could have been cured, the homeless that could have housed, and the children who could have been educated... Our political system is totally corrupt, and our bank vault-busting election spending is only one of the notable symptoms. 

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